A New Era in Buffalo: Analyzing the Bills’ Decision to Fire Sean McDermott
The Buffalo Bills surprised many in Bills Mafia with their decision to move on from Sean McDermott on Monday morning after another difficult playoff loss to the Denver Broncos in the Divisional Round Saturday evening. McDermott became the Bills’ Head Coach in 2017 and instantly brought stability to an organization that had been through eight head coaches during their 17 year playoff drought that preceded him. Buffalo made the playoffs in 2017, and outside of their 2018 reset year, every year after during McDermott’s nine years at One Bills Drive. He leaves Buffalo with a 98-50 record, .662 winning percentage, 2nd all-time, to Marv Levy’s 112 wins, and Lou Saban’s .670 winning percentage. Unfortunately, many will remember him for his 8-8 playoff record and for not getting to the Super Bowl. Instead, I, like many Bills fans, will remember him for taking an organization that was a running punchline and turning it into a perennial contender with a culture that made Buffalo a destination, not a punishment for NFL free agents.
Why Now?
There have been a few times during McDermott’s tenure as head coach that I felt the organization should move on. 13 seconds is a given, but I felt it would have been justified after the 2022 and 2023 seasons. I believe the way the 2022 season ended, and its impact on the team, made it difficult to make a move. They were playoff shortcomings that did not rise to the level of 13 seconds, but were two more instances where the team came up short at home in the playoffs.
I think there were two key reasons to do it now. They saw the success coaching changes brought in Chicago, New England, and Seattle, and how quickly the teams have improved. My only concern with this thought is that they were bad teams that have become good. Buffalo is a good team trying to be consistently great. Sean McDermott didn’t get them to a Super Bowl, and that is the expectation now with whoever becomes the new coach.
They are moving into a new stadium next season and want a fresh voice to bring them into the new era of Buffalo Bills football, one that does not carry the baggage of 7 straight playoff appearances without a trip to the Super Bowl. McDermott changed the culture and made the Bills an AFC contender every season. They now need someone to finish the job.
“I’m told that during a meeting held five weeks ago between McDermott, Beane and Pegula, the coach pointed out what the roster lacked to win a Super Bowl. I don’t know the specifics McDermott mentioned, but I’m told neither Beane nor Pegula was pleased with McDermott’s assessment.”
My final feelings on why now are tied to this quote from Vic Carucci’s story about a meeting between Beane, McDermott, and Pegula earlier this season. My assumption is that this happened right before or right after the Philadelphia Eagles’ loss. It sounds like the years of “underachieving” were weighing on everyone in this meeting, and it probably boiled over. I don’t disagree with McDermott’s take that the entire roster was not talented enough. I understand why Brandon Beane was not accepting of this assessment. They both have egos and weren’t going to admit to their boss that they were to blame for a season that doesn’t end with a Super Bowl.
Press Conference Thoughts
I had planned to finish this blog before the Wednesday press conference, but life got in the way. Terry Pegula made it clear that this was his decision, his alone, based on the scene in the locker room after the Denver Broncos’ loss. He later expanded upon that comment and referred to hitting the “proverbial playoff wall.” This makes more sense, but also leads me back to the case that Sean McDermott should have been fired after the 2021 AFC Divisional loss. The organization has not moved past that low point and is only doing so now, four years later.
I do not believe Brandon Beane had anything to do with the decision. His belief that he had built a Super Bowl caliber roster over the years most likely played a part in Pegula feeling it was necessary to make a move after another year of coming up short. I felt Beane appeared humbled during the press conference and also feels all of the pressure to be better. He may have been promoted, but the tone from the press conference tells me McDermott was fired for their recent performance(s), but Beane is now on the hot seat to find the head coach who can break through the “playoff wall,” and provide them with a roster that can win a Super Bowl.
Overall, the press conference was not great. It definitely made Terry Pegula look bad. Too many times, he stepped in to answer questions directed to Beane. Too many times, he made incomplete statements, and he later had to follow up with more context. The decision to fire McDermott, Keon Coleman, etc. They pushed the narrative that it’s a collaborative process with their drafting and roster construction. This makes sense, coaches obviously need to be involved to get the right players for their schemes, etc. I did not like how this was used to point blame, which at times felt like that, or the way they singled out Coleman on multiple occasions. It was not a good look. If anything, it made me receptive to Brandon Beane again and glad that he is still the GM to get things headed in the right direction.
What’s Next
Buffalo started their head coaching search with a short list of candidates announced below in the days since the firing. As of now, they have conducted three interviews. I am working on another blog about the search and the candidates. No matter who they hire, there are three things I expect to happen after Sean McDermott is fired.
Roster Turnover: It will be at a level we haven’t seen in recent offseasons.
Salary Cap Gymnastics: There will be a high number of restructures, extensions, voids, etc., this offseason. Unlike in past offseasons, I believe this will be to make a splash signing or trade on top of their normal roster additions.
Trades: Brandon Beane is going to be active on the trade market leading up to the draft. I think this will go both ways, with players currently rostered being shopped around, as well as some big names who need new homes being targeted this offseason.
Brandon Beane and ownership are going to do everything in their power to avoid this decision coming back to make them look foolish. Their new coach will be provided with a top-of-the-line staff, financial resources, and a roster that will be Super Bowl caliber.
