Buffalo Bills Divisional Round Preview: How to Beat the Denver Broncos
I broke down the AFC’s top seed, the Denver Broncos, in my previous blog, and now I will break down how the Bills can win on Sunday to advance to their second consecutive AFC Championship game. Below, I will cover where the Bills have a significant advantage, my ideal offensive game plan, key matchups, two Bills players who are x-factors, and my final score prediction.
Where the Bills Have a Clear Advantage
The size of Buffalo’s offensive line. The Bills’ starting offensive line averages 320.8 lbs. David Edwards, listed at 308 lbs, is their lightest lineman and 6th OL, Alec Anderson, tips the scales at 305 lbs. Denver’s 3-4 defense approach relies on the quickness of its linemen and linebackers to be aggressive and get in the backfield quicker, but in doing so, it makes their personnel lighter than your average front 7. The Broncos’ defensive line starters average 292.6 lbs, with D.J. Jones and reserve Eyioma Uwazaurike, the only rostered linemen over 300 lbs. This is a major advantage for the Bills in their rushing attack.
Offensive Game Plan for Buffalo to Beat the Broncos
My thoughts heading into this matchup are to mimic the approach the Bills took in 2023 vs. the Dallas Cowboys and earlier this season vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. Run the ball early and often, use a sixth offensive lineman, feature Reggie Gilliam, Jackson Hawes, and Dawson Knox, and dial up the quick passing game.
The Bills have the best quarterback in the NFL, but after losing two more receivers in the victory over Jacksonville, the passing game will need to be creative. Denver will play man-to-man defense, knowing their defensive backs are better than the Bills’ receivers. Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel’s YAC ability is an advantage for the Bills. If there is a weakness in the Broncos secondary, it’s giving up yards after the catch and missed tackles. LB Alex Singleton and CBs Ja'Quan McMillian and Jahdae Barron need to be targeted in coverage. The three of them had over 50% of the yards against them in coverage after the receiver caught the ball. Knox and Dalton Kincaid will most likely see matchups with Barron and Singleton, with McMillian playing the nickel CB role. Attack these guys in coverage to avoid Pat Surtain II, and pick up yards after the catch.
I know Buffalo needs to throw the ball and be two-dimensional to be successful. I referenced the Cowboys and Steelers games as gameplans to mimic before identifying how the Bills should attack the Broncos through the air. With that said, I would be surprised if Allen attempts 20+ passes on Saturday. If things go according to plan, Buffalo should have 30+ rushing attempts by James Cook and Ray Davis, and shorten the game by running the ball up the middle.
Key Matchups That Will Decide Bills vs Broncos
Josh Allen vs Denver Defense: Allen did a great job taking what the defense gave him in Buffalo’s Wild Card win over the Jaguars. That needs to continue this week. Denver is going to play man-to-man defense and blitz Allen to speed him up, aiming to force him into sacks or turnovers, as he has in games this season against similar defensive schemes. He can’t be afraid to throw the ball away when necessary and take the checkdowns. This is a game where ball protection and time of possession will be critical for the Bills to shorten the game and wear down the Denver defense. If Allen can stay patient and keep taking what is there rather than forcing it, the Bills will win the game.
Buffalo Pass Rush: Greg Rousseau picked up a sack to go along with 3 QB hurries against Jacksonville. Joey Bosa and DaQuan Jones were the only other members of the DL to generate at least three hurries in their Wild Card matchup. Will Ed Oliver, who was moved to the 53-man roster on Friday, 11 weeks removed from bicep surgery, be a factor on the field? Hopefully, he can contribute and isn’t a decoy because Buffalo needs to get pressure on Bo Nix and make him uncomfortable. Nix doesn’t take a lot of sacks and has good scrambling ability, but his accuracy and decision-making drop off considerably when under pressure. Nix completes 48% of his throws under pressure compared to 69.7% when he has a clean pocket, with 6 of his 11 interceptions coming under pressure. His turnover-worthy plays % doubles under pressure, and his receivers’ drop rate increases by almost 5% on throws made under pressure.
Joe Brady vs Vance Joseph: Joe Brady implemented a great gameplan and called a strong game last weekend, and he needs to follow it up this week with another one. Brady is known to spam play calls when they start working, and I can see that being an opportunity in the ground game if the Bills find a play that's working early for Cook and the offense to get into a rhythm. Vance Joseph is a good coordinator with a very talented defense, so it will be crucial for Brady to stay unpredictable and help Allen and the offense be successful.
Bills Run Defense: The Bills cannot allow Denver to run the ball successfully on them. The Broncos are averaging 104.6 yards on the ground since week 11, when RJ Harvey became their lead back after the injury to J.K. Dobbins. It has not been a strength of theirs, but we have seen average running games find their grooves against a very poor Bills’ run D. Harvey, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Tyler Badie are averaging a combined 75.3 yards on the ground over that same stretch. Bills' defenders need to stop the run early and force the Broncos into a one-dimensional offense.
X Factors
Keon Coleman - This is Coleman’s opportunity to redeem himself after being benched earlier this season. I did not expect him to see the field in the playoffs, barring injury, and now he moves into a key role in the offense. He needs to be an effective blocker if the running game is going to be successful. He also needs to run good routes and be a reliable pass catcher when targeted. If he steps up against the Broncos and for the remainder of the playoffs, he will have effectively rewritten his story with the Bills.
Cole Bishop - This is going to be a real test for Bishop heading into a game without Jordan Poyer to lean on. His play took a 180 when Poyer moved into the lineup, and he will now be leaned on by either Cam Lewis or Jordan Hancock in Poyer’s absence. I expect Sean Payton to dial something up early to test the safeties and see if they are up to the challenge.
Final Score Prediction and Why the Bills Advance
Bills 24 Broncos 16
“I love y’all, I got you, you got me.” I expect playoff Josh to pick up where he left off on the final drive against the Jaguars and lead the Bills to back-to-back road playoff wins for a spot in the AFC Championship.
