Buffalo Bills Cap Management: Smart Extension Moves to Make Now

In my previous blog, I covered the Buffalo Bills' free agents from the 2025 season and what I believe the team should do regarding re-signing and moving on from certain players. Now it’s time to look at players under contract in 2026 and beyond.

The Bills are about $8 million over the cap, with less than 10 days until the 4 PM deadline to be under the 2026 salary cap of $301.2 million. They can make some cuts or trade a player to shed some salary. They can also extend some players to lower their 2026 cap numbers.

There are three groups of players that I will explore potential extensions with, and the savings a new deal would bring. This is not meant to say it will happen, but these are the players who make the most sense to me, from a cap standpoint, and where they are in their careers. Two players are on their second contract with the team. I suggest the parameters for a third and most likely final contract with the Bills. One recent free-agent signing who may be open to helping the team by signing a new deal one year into their current one. Lastly, I list two players on their rookie deals. These extensions may not be the large-cap savings for 2026 that the other three players mentioned will be, but signing them now may save the team money in the future.

Third Times a Charm

Dawson Knox - Knox is entering the final year of the 3-year/$29.5 million extension that he reworked with the team after originally signing a 4-year/$52 million extension. That contract rework ahead of the 2024 season leads me to believe that he and the team will be able to find a common ground this offseason to lower his $17 million cap hit. I do not expect or want the team to release Knox, even though it would provide $12 million in cap relief. The reason behind this is that I don’t think they can replace his leadership or production at a lower price. Adding two more seasons to the current deal would lower the cap hit by $8.5 mill and keep his cap hit under $9 mill through the 2028 season. The roster, option, and workout bonuses can be tweaked, and it would adjust the salary cap hit with a reasonable out after the 2027 season.

2-Year Contract Extension using Spotrac Contract Management for Dawson Knox

Ed Oliver - Oliver is currently in year 3 of the 4-year/$68 million rookie extension he signed in 2023. His cap hit rises to $23.9 million this season and $25.7 million next season to finish out the deal. I know Oliver has had some injuries, so there is a risk to extending him. I also believe he will thrive in Jim Leonhard’s defense, and that his injury history can help the Bills add two more years and lower that cap hit and AAV to a more manageable number. Below is a breakdown of what a 2-year extension, adding $30 million in new money and two void years, could look like for Oliver. His AAV would lower to $15 mill, and his cap hit would be about $8 million this year and $5 million next year. The roster, option, and workout bonuses can be tweaked, and it would adjust the salary cap hit. I’m not a huge fan of adding void years, but in this situation, it's only adding $3.6 million in dead money in the 2030 season if they don’t tinker with his contract again. It also leaves the team a reasonable out after the 2028 and 2029 seasons if things are not going as well as I expect them to.

2-Year Contract Extension using Spotrac Contract Management for Ed Oliver

It Can’t Hurt to Ask

Michael Hoecht - Hoecht looked like a wrecking ball in his 6 quarters of play before being injured last season. Maybe I am overreacting to that, but I loved what I saw in the limited action. I understand he is returning from an Achilles injury and will be 29 this fall, but I think his skill set will be better utilized in Leonhard’s scheme, and I would like to see him extended past the 2027 season. Adding 2 years and $13 million to his existing deal would lower his cap hit by about $3 million this year and keep him in Buffalo through the 2029 season.

2-Year Contract Extension using Spotrac Contract Management for Michael Hoecht

2023 NFL Draft Class Extensions

Dalton Kincaid - Kincaid became extension eligible this offseason and has proven that when he is healthy, he’s a game changer. That is the main concern I have with extending Kincaid now, his health. Kincaid has missed nine games over the past two seasons after appearing in all 16 games of his rookie campaign. After hauling in 73 receptions in 2023, he has failed to eclipse 50 receptions in the following two seasons. So what should the Bills do? Brandon Beane is on the record saying they will pick up his 5th-year option, a guaranteed $8.16 million in 2027, his age-28 season. His cap hit this year is a very manageable $4.27 million, but every dollar saved will help the Bills, and extending Kincaid now may be cheaper than letting him play out his contract. I believe they can come to terms with Kincaid that benefits him and the team, and provides protection if injuries remain an issue.

Spotrac has his market value at $14.6 million AAV. I believe this is high, and if a deal is to be made at this point in his career, Beane’s history shows it will not be at this number. There is one rookie contract extension that I would use as the high end of the range we can expect for Kincaid, and a custom one that I am using based on a few other Tight End contracts I believe have similar usage and bodies of work to what Kincaid has shown in his first three seasons. Signing this contract now is similar to how Beane has approached some other players who have shown flashes before getting their contract extensions.

Baseline: 3-years/$31.5 million extension, $10.5 MIL AAV, on top of 5th year option (Used Evan Engram and Dallas Goedert as comps)
High End: Cole Kmet 4-years/$50 million extension, $12.5 MIL AAV, signed after third season

O'Cyrus Torrence - Torrence has not missed a game since being selected in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. He enters the final year of his rookie 4-year contract with an expected cap hit of $4.15 million. The thought here is that the Bills are most likely losing David Edwards in free agency. Do you want to risk losing your right guard the following offseason after developing him? I don’t expect Torrence to command the contract that Edwards will get this offseason, but he is still a strong starting-caliber guard who hasn’t entered his prime yet, so it may behoove the Bills to get ahead of his contract situation to avoid the potential of replacing both guards in back-to-back offseasons.

Baseline: Jon Runyan 3-years/$30 million FA contract, $10 MIL AAV, signed with NYG after completing 4-year contract with GB
High End: Ben Powers 4-years/$51.5 million FA contract, $12.75 MIL AAV, signed with DEN after completing 4-year contract with BAL