Buffalo Bills Draft Scenarios: From Best Case to Full Chaos

The NFL Draft is less than a week away. I, like many of Bills Mafia, am anxiously awaiting how that will play out. With a loaded AFC and a roster that’s both talented and top-heavy, this year’s draft isn’t just about adding depth. It’s about maximizing a championship window led by Josh Allen.

The Bills approach draft night with multiple paths in front of them. Brandon Beane can stay patient and let value fall, package picks to move up for a difference-maker in the draft, or one of the big names currently rumored to be available, Dexter Lawrence, anyone? They can also trade back and stockpile depth across a roster that has multiple needs as they transition to a new defensive scheme under the guidance of their new Head Coach.

From a dream scenario where Buffalo lands an instant-impact playmaker, to a nightmare where top targets vanish early, to a chaotic night full of unexpected trades and reaches, every outcome is on the table.

Let’s break down what each scenario could look like for the Bills, and what it would mean for their chances heading into the season.

An Unexpected Fall

One of the top prospects falls into the 20s or into the Bills’ lap at 26. Three names come to mind in this scenario. EDGE Rueben Bain Jr. out of Miami, Arizona State WR Jordyn Tyson, and USC WR Makai Lemon.

All three of these players are top 15 prospects on most draft analysts' big boards, so they should not be available when the Bills are picking in the first round. All three have had red flags come up during the pre-draft process.

Rueben Bain was a top 5 pick according to most before the combine, with some believing he was the best defensive prospect in the draft. His poor combine results on top of his short arm measurements. Most EDGE rushers have arms that are at least 33” long, while Bain’s measured below 31” long. I was not aware of this opinion before this came out, but it seems to be a pretty big issue with some analysts. This was causing Bain to slip on some boards, and this week, it was reported that he was the driver in a crash that left one passenger dead in 2024. Most teams have reportedly known about this incident, but it’s now public information in the mainstream media.

WR Jordyn Tyson has a lengthy injury history during his collegiate career. He tore his ACL, MCL, and PCL in 2022 while at Colorado. He transferred to Arizona St. and appeared in three games after returning from injury without recording a stat. He played in 12 games his junior year and 9 his senior year, missing time due to a hamstring injury. Overall, he missed 17 games out of a possible 51 during his college career. A highly talented receiver, but availability is a major concern that may cause Tyson to slide out of the top 15.

WR Makai Lemon was a very productive player at USC over the last two seasons, with 131 receptions, 1,920 yards, and 14 touchdowns in 24 games. His attitude and ability to produce in the NFL are the two causes for concern with most NFL teams currently. His interviews at the combine did not go well, according to reports, and he is not an explosive athlete, which raises questions for evaluators about whether he can be a bona fide NFL Wide Receiver.

I don't know if any of these players will make it out of the top 20, let alone to pick 26. I do think Bain and Tyson should be options for the Bills if there is a fall and the opportunity to snag one. I would not draft Makai Lemon based on concerns about his ability to play in the NFL.

Early Run on Two Positions

The worst-case scenario is the board breaks badly for the Bills, and they’re stuck at 26 without a trade option. This can happen if a run on Wide Receiver and the EDGE position occurs, with teams expected to take OL or DBs going in a different direction. I am thinking of the 2022 Draft and 2023, when the Bills seemed to panic, trading up to draft CB Kaiir Elam after Kansas City drafted CB Trent McDuffie. In 2023, four consecutive wide receivers came off the board, starting at pick 20, when they were sitting at 27. The Bills traded up and drafted TE Dalton Kincaid at 25.

This seems like a highly possible scenario again this year. An early run on wide receivers and pass rushers could have the Bills in a spot where they are taking a player they do not have a first-round grade on. If that’s the case, they need QB Ty Simpson to be on the board and Arizona to be looking to trade up. The Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers are two teams that could put an end to this scenario with picks at 21 and 24 before the Bills’ time to draft.

If Buffalo cannot trade out of 26 and the WR and EDGE run happens, there are a lot of possibilities. Do they go best player available and draft a Cornerback or Guard instead of reaching for a Linebacker or Defensive Tackle? Is Dillon Thieneman or Emmanuel McNeil-Warren available?

My preference would be safety to pair a young player with Cole Bishop for the next decade. If that's not an option, best player available is my move. The Bills would most likely have their choice of one of the top offensive linemen available, which may allow them to move off of a current, more expensive player on the roster for draft assets. It's not a sexy choice by any means, but it has short-term and long-term benefits for the roster.

F*** Them Picks

Brandon Beane decides that he’s not going to sit at 26 and needs a day one playmaker by moving picks in 2026 and 2027 to get into the top 10. This would be a change in direction from everything we have seen this organization do since the 2018 draft, Beane’s first with the organization. There are only three players in this draft that I could envision the Bills doing this for (still unlikely), and they all went to school in Columbus, Ohio. WR Carnell Tate, Safety Caleb Downs, and EDGE Arvell Reese. These are the three best players in the draft who would be worthy of that kind of trade-up. It would be unprecedented and a shock, hence it being part of the chaos scenario.

The other chaos factor is trades from other teams. Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, and Miami have two first-round picks in the draft, and the Rams hold Atlanta’s #13 pick from their trade during last year’s draft (Atlanta, Denver, Green Bay, Indianapolis, and Jacksonville have 0) Could we see some of the teams with multiple firsts package them to jump up to the top of the draft, causing a ripple effect of trades? This scenario could cause the board to fall differently than anticipated.

Most Likely Outcome

The Bills trade back from 26 with a team looking to get back into the first round for Ty Simpson or a CB/OT prospect that falls, giving Buffalo the 2nd round pick they’re missing and more. The Bills have multiple holes to fill this draft, and if they can’t get a day-one starter at 26, they need to acquire draft picks to make more selections rather than reaching for a player in the first round who isn't a true first-round talent.

I will have more on the draft next week, including my first and only mock draft. Go Bills!