Three Keys to the Bills’ 2025 Campaign
Why Buffalo Has the Pieces to Make a Super Bowl Run
Hard Knocks is over, the 53-man roster is set (for now), and everyone is patiently waiting for Sunday Night Football to kick off the season. It’s another year of high expectations for the Bills, and, like many of the Bills Mafia, I am ready to see how the 2025 Buffalo Bills will respond after their second AFC Championship loss and fourth playoff exit to the Kansas City Chiefs. Here are my three key thoughts as to why 2025 is the year that the Bills will finally lift the Lombardi trophy.
The Bills’ Offense Was Good in 2024. It’ll Be Great in 2025.
The Buffalo offense finished the 2024 season 2nd in points per game at 30.6, and 2nd in Offensive EPA (expected points added) per play at .18, on the arm and legs of Josh Allen’s MVP season. This was the second-highest mark since Allen became the starting quarterback behind the 2020 season, when they scored 31.3 ppg. They will be better in 2025.
The Bills are returning all five starters on the offensive line from a unit that let up a league low in sacks last season. The emergence of the running game behind the trio of James Cook, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson makes up one of the best backfields in the NFL. It’s not a coincidence that Allen set career lows in interceptions, fumbles, and sacks taken.
The Wide Receiver group boasts more talent, thanks to the new additions and the development of receivers returning from the 2024 team. Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore bring speed and athleticism to the group. Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel enter a second season in the offense after showing promise in their first season catching passes from Allen. Coleman does some things really well, and I expect Joe Brady will focus on those attributes versus forcing him to be something he’s not. Samuel showed at the end of last season that he is a dangerous receiver when healthy.
The Bills lost 675 receiving yards with the departures of Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins. It won’t be difficult to make up for it with Palmer and a more involved role for Coleman, so I am not concerned there. The challenge they will face is maintaining their health. Palmer’s career high for starts is 11, and he has missed nine games between the last two seasons. Coleman missed four games last season with a wrist injury, and Khalil Shakir is returning from an ankle sprain that hindered him most of the preseason. Gabe Davis was recently added to the practice squad, which brings a familiar face back into the mix. Still, he is also recovering from an injury that ended his 2024 season in Jacksonville. The top receivers need to be on the field to open the offense for the rest of the playmakers.
Speaking of playmakers, don’t sleep on Dalton Kincaid. He’s healthy, and the added weapons around him should open up the middle of the field for him and allow him to find holes in defenses. Kincaid and Dawson Knox are a formidable mix at the tight end position. 12 personnel became a key success in the Bills’ running game late last year and should help the duo get more favorable matchups if they decide to pass out of that formation. I expect a better 2024 season from both tight ends. Health and less attention from the defense have me confident in a bounce-back year for Kincaid. I expect his numbers to resemble his production from his rookie season.
Top 10 Defense in the Making
Buffalo overhauled their defense through the draft, on top of adding some veteran help in free agency. The defensive line and secondary were bolstered by an influx of youth, including five drafted players, and the talent level was raised following a mediocre 2024 season performance-wise. Unfortunately, first-round pick Maxwell Hairston will be starting the season on IR, so he is out for at least the first four games. Tre'Davious White, Ja'Marcus Ingram, and Dorian Strong will need to step up in his absence.
The safety position is under the microscope and for good reason. Taylor Rapp returns as a starter, and I am fully confident in his ability at the position, but he needs to stay healthy. Cole Bishop is expected to start alongside him, and I am excited to see what he can do after an up-and-down rookie season. Many fans have been clamoring for a free agent addition this offseason, but I have the mindset that when you draft players as highly as Bishop was, they need to play. He is healthy, and they need to see what he can do at the safety position. The Chiefs have received a lot of praise for overhauling their roster with young players during their championship run. It doesn’t mean they didn’t have bumps in the road during the process. Start with Bishop and allow him to build confidence without having to look over his shoulder after making a mistake, which is inevitable. Adding Jordan Poyer to the practice squad to help mentor the second-year safety was a smart move by the Bills’ front office.
They also made some additions to the coaching staff. Ryan Nielsen joined the team as a Senior Defensive Assistant. Nielsen brings two key things to the defense: a background in coaching defensive lines, even being called a “guru,” and an emphasis on man coverage. These are two areas that the Bills’ defense has really struggled with over the past two seasons. Jason Rebrovich returns to the Bills as the Assistant Defensive Line Coach for a second stint after being with the team from 2013 to 2016. In 2013, the Bills set the franchise record with 57 sacks as a team and followed it up with 54 in 2014. He has had success in Jacksonville and Green Bay since then, and has the talent to work with in Buffalo to continue that success.
This will be the best pass rush that the Bills have had under Sean McDermott. The Bills eclipsed 50 sacks in a season twice since McDermott’s tenure started. They will do it again this season with the most talented front four that the Bills have had under this regime. Having Joey Bosa lined up opposite Greg Rousseau finally gives the front four two bona fide pass rushers on the edge. It creates more 1:1 opportunities for them, as well as in the middle for Ed Oliver and the promising rookies behind him. I am not as concerned about Bosa’s injury history as others because the rotation of players at the defensive line position will keep his snap count low. Adding Michael Hoecht and Larry Ogunjobi to the mix after their suspensions are served will help keep the group fresh for the second half of the season.
Class Is in Session: 2025 Rookies Will Step Up
Will this year’s draft class go down as Brandon Beane’s best? I don’t know, but I like the mix of players drafted, and I believe they will provide a valuable impact on the field starting this season for two reasons. They do not have the added pressure of being starters, and the guidance they’re receiving from the veterans around them.
Hairston’s injury delays his NFL debut but opens the door for fellow CB draftmate, Dorian Strong. Strong is a perfect scheme fit for the Bills’ secondary out of Virginia Tech, and he had a good training camp and preseason with the increased reps from the injuries in the position group. Could the 6th round pick follow in Christian Benford’s footsteps and take the CB2 role and never give it back?
T.J. Sanders, Landon Jackson, and Deone Walker will have significant roles in the Bills’ defensive line rotation early on due to the suspensions of Hoecht and Ogunjobi. I was skeptical of the Walker selection at the time of the draft. I am now excited to see him on the field and how he can impact play. Sanders and Jackson were names linked to the Bills early in the draft process and earned their way into backup roles at the DE and DT positions. All three of them bring a skill set to their respective position that is a boost from where the team was last season.
The on-field success of the draft picks will determine how far the Bills go this season and how they're set up for the future from a roster-building standpoint. I’m confident that they selected the right guys to step up to the challenge. Go Bills!
