Week 3: Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Preview
When and Where: Thursday, September 18th, 8:15 PM at Highmark Stadium
How to Watch: Airing on Amazon Prime
Betting Line: Buffalo -11.5 O/U 50.5
Key Storylines
Injuries: Buffalo will be without Ed Oliver for a second straight game and Matt Milano will be missing his first with an injury sustained in the Jets game. Miami is missing two starters in the secondary in Ifeatu Melifonwu and Storm Duck.
Dominance: Josh Allen is 13-2 with 45 total touchdowns vs Miami in his career. He has won the AFC Player of the Week five times with his performances against the Dolphins.
Desperate Times: There has been speculation that Coach Mike McDaniel could be fired if Miami loses and for good reason. The 2018 Houston Texans are the only team to start a season 0-3 and make the playoffs, so losing this game could seal their fate before October. There is growing frustrations with star receiver Tyreek Hill that started at the end of last season and continue with his named being rumored on the trade block. Could a bad loss lead to organizational and drastic roster moves?
Offensive Firepower: The Bills’ offense averages 313.1 yards per game in the 14 regular-season matchups with the Dolphins since Allen entered the league. They have averaged 31.5 points per game since Sean McDermott became the Bills' head coach, with a 15-2 record against the division rival since 2017.
Primetime Affair: The Bills are undefeated on Thursday Night Football since Josh Allen became their quarterback. This will be the fourth TNF matchup with the Dolphins, and the second consecutive season.
Friday Wednesday Injury Report
Matchups to Watch
Bills Secondary vs Miami Passing Attack: The Dolphins offense is still explosive even if they haven’t looked it to start the season. The Buffalo secondary bounced back last week vs the Jets but Tua Tagovailoa is a much better quarterback than they faced. The Bills will need to be ready for motion, quick passes, and the over the top threat Miami receivers possess.
Miami OL vs Bills Pass Rush: The Dolphins offensive line is not good. The Bills pass rush has been good, not great, overall. This is a game I expect them to flash and see improved performances from Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa.
Josh Allen vs Miami Secondary: The Dolphins defense played very poorly over the first two weeks of the season against quarterbacks not on Josh Allen’s level. They’re now missing two starters from a weak secondary with Ashtyn Davis and Rasul Douglas stepping into starting roles. How are they going to slow down the Bills?
James Cook vs Miami Front Seven: James Cook 2025 campaign has picked up where he left off with 3 touchdowns over the first two weeks. The Dolphins are allowing 139 yards per game on the ground and 3 touchdowns through two games. I expect Cook to be fed the ball early to open up the passing game and be a factor out of the backfield to exploit the Miami linebackers.
X-Factors
Miami Dolphins: Chop Robinson and Jaylen Waddle. Robinson is the type of athletic rusher that can create problems for the Bills offensive line. The Dolphins have some talented pass rushers paired with him so all of their focus can’t be on him. I expect the offense to use the running game and some quick passes early to slow the rush down. Waddle is the receiver to watch that can be a real X factor in this game. Historically, the Bills have done well defending Hill. In doing so, this has opened up the field for Waddle. Waddle has average 6 targets with two 100-yard games in seven career games vs the Bills.
Buffalo Bills: Joey Bosa and Dalton Kincaid. Bosa followed up his strong week 1 performance by grading out as the best pass rusher in the NFL last week with his first sack in a Bills uniform and seven quarterback pressures. This will be the worst offensive line he has faced so far this season. I don’t know if he will have the same stats as last week but the attention he draws may open the field for the rest of the defense if its not open for him. Kincaid is averaging four catches on five targets a game with one touchdown and is about to face a defense that’s giving up 71.5 yards and 6 catches a game to the tight end position. I expect Miami will send safety help to the outside on the wide receivers which will only improve the matchup advantage for Kincaid against the Dolphins’ linebackers.
Keys to Victory
The Bills will take the lead early and score on all their first half possessions to put Miami into a one dimensional offense. The pass rush will pressure the Dolphins’ offensive line all night creating multiple turnovers as the Bills move to the ground game to finish out the second half.
Prediction
Bills 41 Dolphins 20
Go Bills!
