Week 9: Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Preview
When and Where: Sunday, November 2nd, 4:25 PM at Highmark Stadium
How to Watch: Airing on CBS
Betting Line: Kansas City -1.5 O/U 52.5
Key Storylines
Allen vs Mahomes Part X: This is the 10th matchup between the two quarterbacks, sixth in the regular season. Josh Allen is 4-1 in the previous five matchups, and the Bills have won four straight since their 26-17 Week 6 loss in the 2020 season. Allen and the Bills are 0-4 vs the Chiefs in the playoffs. According to the latest betting odds, Patrick Mahomes (+140) and Allen (+350) are the leading MVP candidates.
AFC Offensive Player of the Week: How will James Cook follow up the first 200+ rushing yard performance of his career against the Chiefs?
CBS Studio Crew On Site: James Brown and crew will be live from Highmark Stadium outside Lot 6 starting at noon on Sunday.
AFC Standings: The Bills are currently 5th, and the Chiefs are 7th. The losing team could see itself outside the playoff picture after Sunday.
Injuries: Buffalo lost Ed Oliver with a biceps injury for the remainder of the regular season and will be without DaQuan Jones, Joshua Palmer, and Shaq Thompson. Isiah Pacheco and Josh Simmons are out. Guard Trey Smith has been limited as he returns from a back injury and is Questionable.
Friday Injury Reports
Buffalo Bills Friday, 10-31-25 Injury Report
Kansas City Chiefs Friday, 10-31-25 Injury Report
Matchups to Watch
Bills Pass Rush vs Patrick Mahomes: Will the Bills be able to continue the success they found with their pass rush vs the Panthers? Buffalo enters the Chiefs' game with the second-highest defensive pressure rate in the NFL at 9.7%. They will be without Oliver and Jones, so Deone Walker, Jordan Phillips, and Larry Ogunjobi will need to step up in the middle. A.J. Epenesa, Greg Rousseau, and Joey Bosa, and Michael Hoecht have to continue their high level of play heading into the matchup and keep pressure on Mahomes without being forced to blitz. They will need to remain disciplined. Mahomes is on pace for the most rushing yards of his career and is averaging 6.1 yards per rush with four touchdowns this season.
Josh Allen vs Chiefs’ Blitz: Allen has not been his usual self against the blitz this season, and teams are taking advantage of it. Allen has faced the blitz on 28.84% of his dropbacks, with Atlanta blitzing on nearly 56% of them in the Bills' Week 6 loss. Joe Brady has to implement quick passing options for Allen to find against the Chiefs. Steve Spagnuolo is known for blitzing frequently and knowing when to dial it up in key situations. How Allen handles this on Sunday will be the deciding factor on the success of the offense.
Chiefs Secondary vs Bills Receivers: The Chiefs have arguably the best corner duo in the NFL between Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie. With how they’re playing and the way the Bills’ receivers have looked over recent weeks, this takes away a portion of the field for the Bills’ passing attack. Josh Allen should not attempt to throw to anyone covered by them. I know that sounds extreme but thats the level of play both sides are at currently. If the Bills are to be successful in passing the ball, Allen will need to attack Chamarri Conner, Jaden Hicks, and Nick Bolton in coverage.
Bills Secondary vs Chiefs Receivers: Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice, Tyquan Thornton, and Xavier Worthy are all fast. The Chiefs lead the NFL in YAC, with 53% of their passing yards coming after the catch. Mahomes wants to get the ball in his playmaker’s hands in space to make defenses pay. I expect Buffalo to play more man coverage than they have so far this season, and part of that will be the presence of Maxwell Hairston. He was drafted for matchups like the Chiefs. I won’t be surprised if we see more of Jordan Hancock in specific packages to bring more speed to the secondary against this lineup. They cannot play a zone-heavy defense and expect Mahomes not to pick them apart.
X Factors
Kansas City: George Karlaftis and Xavier Worthy: If Buffalo is unable to slow Worthy down in the passing game, it will be a long night for the Bills’ defense. His speed opens up the middle of the field for the offense, especially Travis Kelce, and now that Rice is back, the Chiefs’ offense has found another gear. Kansas City is 4-1, averaging 31 points per game since Worthy’s return in Week 4. They were 1-2, averaging 20 points a game without him (including the Week 1 loss when he was injured in the 1st quarter). Karlaftis is the Chiefs’ best pass rusher and currently leads them with 4.5 sacks on the season. Karlaftis has the size and speed to track Allen down when he escapes the pocket and is a respectable defender against the run as well.
Buffalo: Dalton Kincaid and Michael Hoecht: Kansas City's defense is giving up an 82% completion percentage to tight ends, the fourth worst in the NFL, so Kincaid needs to be a focal point in the Bills’ passing attack. Last week, he was limited on snaps returning from an oblique injury. Hopefully, that was due to the game getting out of hand early, giving him extra rest heading into this matchup. Hoecht made his long-awaited Bills debut and did not disappoint against the Panthers. His versatility in moving around the line and generating pressure will be vital to the Bills' ability to make Mahomes uncomfortable without blitzing. It will be interesting to see how he is used and if his
Keys to Victory
The Bills establish their running game early with Cook, which allows them to use play-action to open up their passing attack against the league's worst play-action defense. Buffalo’s pass rush is successful without having to blitz, while their offensive line and Josh Allen can stymie the Chiefs' blitz pressures and sustain long drives to keep Mahomes and the offense on the sidelines.
Prediction
Bills 30 Chiefs 27
Go Bills!
