Divisional Round: Breaking Down the Denver Broncos
The Buffalo Bills escaped Jacksonville with a 27-24 hard fought victory over the AFC’s #3 seed, which earned them a matchup with the AFC’s #1 seed, the Denver Broncos. Buffalo heads to Denver, coming off a bye, for a rematch of last year’s Wild Card matchup. Now, I will break down Denver’s key players, the team’s strengths and weaknesses, and themes from the Broncos’ wins and losses this season.
Key Players
QB Bo Nix - 388/612, 63.4%, 3,931 Passing Yards, 25 TDs, 11 INTs, 22 Sacks, 87.8 Passer Rating
RB RJ Harvey - 146 Carries, 540 Rushing Yards, 3.7 YPC, 7 TDs, 1 Fumble - 47 Receptions, 356 Receiving Yards, 7.6 YPR, 5 TDs
WR Courtland Sutton - 74 Receptions, 124 Targets, 1,017 Receiving Yards, 13.7 YPR, 7 TDs, 8 Drops
LB Nik Bonitto - 46 Tackles, 14 TFL, 14 Sacks, 1 PD, 2 FF
CB Pat Surtain II - 47 Tackles, 1 TFL, 12 PD, 1 INT, 54.1 Completion % against, 305 Receiving Yards Allowed, 1 TD Allowed
X Factor
Riley Moss was targeted 115 times (most in the NFL) during the regular season, giving up 66 receptions (tied for 3rd most). He broke up 16% of the passes thrown his way, but he was penalized on 12% of those targets (12 penalties accepted, 2 declined). This is what happens when you are the CB opposite of the NFL’s reigning DPOY and the best cornerback in the league. Which version will show up Saturday vs the Bills?
Team Strengths
Defense - Denver finished the regular season with the 2nd-best run defense at 91.1 yards per game and 7th with 187.2 passing yards per game.
Red Zone Defense - Denver led the league, holding opponents to a 42.55% touchdown rate on Red Zone trips.
Comeback Kids - The Broncos had six victories decided in the fourth-quarter or overtime this season. Denver scored 81 points after the third quarter in these wins, including a 33 and 18-point final quarter against the Giants and Eagles.
Sack Artists - For the second season in a row, the Broncos led the NFL in team sacks, with 68 on the season. They had a sack in every game and at least 2 sacks in 15 games. In 10 games, they finished with 4+ sacks, 4 games with at least six sacks, and a season high of 9 in their week 6 victory over the NY Jets.
Special Teams - Wil Lutz is 39/39 on PATs on the year and 28/32 on Field Goals. Jeremy Crawshaw has become one of the NFL's best punters in his first season, with 30 punts inside the 20 and 23 fair catches, both tied for 3rd in the NFL. Marvin Mims is one of the best punt returners in the NFL, leading the league with 452 return yards while averaging 15.6 yards per return (3rd in NFL).
Team Weaknesses
Running Game - The Broncos have struggled in the ground game with the loss of J.K. Dobbins. As a team, they were averaging 128.6 yards per game on the ground through week 10. Since his injury, they are averaging 104.6 yards per game, and their lead back, RJ Harvey, is averaging 46.6 ypg.
QB Consistency - Bo Nix has five games in which he has completed <60% of his passes this season. The Broncos are 3-2 in those games. He averaged 231.2 passing yards per game, with 4 games at 300+, but 7 games in which he failed to reach 200 passing yards.
Linebacker Coverage - Denver’s Linebackers are great at rushing the passer and stopping the run. They struggle with coverage. Alex Singleton, Dre Greenlaw, and Justin Strnad allowed 10.2 yards per reception on 82 receptions at an 80.4% completition rate.
Defending Tight Ends - Broncos defenders have given up 95 receptions and 6 touchdowns to opposing teams’ tight ends for the 9th most yards allowed in the NFL, with 1015.
Defensive Penalties - Denver finished the season as the 28th worst team in the NFL with 7.3 penalties per game and led the league in penalty yards with 1,149. Defensively, they had 118 penalties called, the 6th-most in the NFL, and led the league in Defensive Pass Interference calls with 20, as well as yards lost on DPI with 350.
How Denver Wins
Denver’s defense is the key to its victories, having allowed them to win by 2 points when they were held to fewer than 250 total yards and by 20+ points when they put up over 500 yards of offense. Defensively, they have held opponents to an average of 252.5 total yards in their victories compared to 398.3 yards allowed in their 3 losses. They do not rely on turnovers, but hold opponents to a 33.76% success rate on third down, 2nd best in the NFL, while allowing opponents an average of 28:57 time of possession, 7th best in the NFL.
How Denver Lost
Denver lost to Indianapolis and the Los Angeles Chargers in Weeks 2 and 3 before rattling off 11 straight victories. Their third loss came to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who were in the midst of an eight-game winning streak in Week 16. Daniel Jones and Justin Herbert were the only quarterbacks to throw for 300+ passing yards against the Broncos this season, while Trevor Lawrence had 279 passing yards in Jacksonville’s win. Marcus Mariota, Jaxson Dart, and Jalen Hurts were the only other Quarterbacks to have 279 or more passing yards in a game against the Broncos. Denver came back and beat the Commanders in OT and the Giants and Eagles with 4th quarter comebacks. Denver was 3-3 when facing QBs who had 279+ passing yards.
