Buffalo Bills Wild Card Preview: How to Beat the Jacksonville Jaguars
I broke down the 3-seed Jacksonville Jaguars in my previous blog, and now I will break down how the Bills can win on Sunday and advance to the AFC Divisional Round for the sixth consecutive season. Below, I will cover where the Bills have a significant advantage, my ideal offensive game plan, key matchups, two Bills players who are x-factors, and my final score prediction.
Where the Bills Have a Clear Advantage
Experience. Sunday will be Josh Allen’s 14th career playoff start and the 15th game for Head Coach Sean McDermott. Experience doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does help the Bills players prepare for the game and not make it bigger than what it is. A lot of the quotes from One Bills Drive have echoed this sentiment this week.
“I’m definitely not as freaked out as I was when I was a rookie. Walking into Kansas City, that was the craziest playoff game I’ve ever been a part of. But not all of them are going to be like that. Just play your game and don’t make it bigger than it is.”
“Having guys that have been around the playoffs regularly on a team, I think it does pay dividends. Trusting the veteran leadership, trusting our guys to convey the message to some of the younger guys … whatever we can do to make one more play and score one more point than our opponent — that’s our goal”
Buffalo is making their 7th straight postseason as the Jaguars are making their first appearance since the 2022 season, and it will be Quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s third career playoff start. Despite the experience, the Bills have failed to win a road playoff game with McDermott and Allen.
Offensive Game Plan for Buffalo to Beat the Jaguars
The Bills need to establish their running game and stay two-dimensional. Buffalo has struggled when teams have been able to clamp down on their passing attack when the running game isn’t utilized. In the six games in which they had fewer than 20 rushing attempts from their running backs, they are 2-4, with the two wins coming in their comebacks against the Ravens in Week 1 and against the Buccaneers in Week 11. Using the running game to keep the Jaguars’ defense honest and opening up the play-action passing game will be critical early in the contest. Josh Allen has ran playaction on 30% of his drop-backs this season, completing 71.7% of his passes for 1,134 yards with 8 touchdowns and 1 interception.
Josh Allen needs to target Dalton Kincaid early and often. Bills’ quarterbacks (Mitch Trubisky Week 18) had a 149.2 passer rating when targeting Kincaid this season, which led all NFL pass catchers. Kincaid’s field-stretching ability versus a defense that’s shown a vulnerability in covering the Tight End position needs to be exploited. He’s been the best pass-catching option for the Bills when he's on the field, and their record shows it. 10-2 in games Kincaid played, and 2-3 in games that he has missed. 7 of Allen’s 10 interceptions on the season came in those 5 games compared to only six touchdown passes. Allen had 19 touchdowns and 3 interceptions with Kincaid active, and his completion percentage is 71% with him playing versus 64.5% with him inactive. Kincaid opens up the offense, making it easier for his quarterback and fellow receivers.
The final piece to the Bills’ offensive plan against the Jaguars that I want to see is a vertical passing game. Along with Kincaid, Brandin Cooks, Keon Coleman, and Tyrell Shavers need to be targeted downfield. Jacksonville CB Greg Newsome is the player I expect Allen to look for in coverage. Wide Receivers are averaging 11.1 ypc and have 5 touchdowns against him this season.
Key Matchups That Will Decide Bills vs Jaguars
Buffalo Offensive Line vs Jaguars Front 7: The Bills OL will need to communicate well and expect a barrage of simulated pressures and exotic looks to confuse them. I really hope Joe Brady has learned from earlier failures this season and uses Alec Anderson as an extra lineman, keeps his tight ends and running backs in to pass protect or chip before running routes. Josh Allen will need to identify the protections needed and help himself in avoiding unnecessary pressure or sacks. They cannot expect to protect with only five linemen all day.
Jaguars Tight End Coverage: Buffalo has to utilize all of their tight ends and become less predictable at what they’re doing with who’s on the field. Kincaid can’t just be out there to run routes. Run the ball while he’s on the field to add some uncertainty for Jacksonville. The Jaguars' defense doesn’t have a lot of flaws, but if there’s a chink in the armor, it’s their Tight End coverage. Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Jackson Hawes will all play critical roles if the Bills are to come away with a victory.
Buffalo’s Pass Rush: Joey Bosa is the healthiest he’s been entering the playoffs in his career (His words, not mine.) Greg Rousseau, T.J. Sanders, and Larry Ogunjobi have been playing some of their best football of the season the past few weeks. The pass rush needs to pressure Trevor Lawrence and be cautious of his scrambling. The approach they took against the Chiefs and Patriots should be similar to what we see on Sunday.
X Factors
Ray Davis and Joey Bosa. Davis made the All-Pro 1st team for his kick-return abilities, which will be vital to improving the Bills' starting field position. He will also be important to the offense. It doesn’t appear that Ty Johnson will be active with his practice statuses this week, and the practice squad call-up of Frank Gore Jr. He is coming off his best game of the season versus the Jets, and will need to step up in Johnson’s absence to give James Cook a breather when needed, and be a change of pace back on top of his pass catching abilitiy.
Joey Bosa was brought in to be the guy who can take over a game in the playoffs. Go do it. The Bills have limited his reps and rested him in the back half of the season to be as close to 100% as possible heading into the playoffs. Show everyone what you’re capable of.
Final Score Prediction and Why the Bills Advance
Bills 31 Jaguars 24
On paper, Jacksonville may have a better team than Buffalo. I won’t dispute that. The Bills have the best player that will be on the field in Josh Allen. And to quote the MVP quarterback, “I love us.” Go Bills!
