Wild Card Weekend: Breaking Down the Jacksonville Jaguars
The Buffalo Bills enter Wild Card Weekend in unfamiliar territory as they head to Jacksonville for a 1 PM matchup on Sunday with the AFC South Champion Jaguars. Buffalo secured the six seed with a victory over the New York Jets in Week 18 and a loss by the Los Angeles Chargers after failing to win the AFC East for their sixth consecutive year. Now, I will break down Jacksonville’s key players, the team’s strengths and weaknesses, and themes from the Jaguars’ wins and losses this season.
Key Players
QB Trevor Lawrence - 341/560, 60.9%, 4,007 Passing Yards, 29 TDs, 12 INTs, 41 Sacks, 91.0 Passer Rating
RB Travis Etienne - 260 Carries, 1,107 Rushing Yards, 4.3 YPC, 7 TDs, 0 Fumbles - 36 Receptions, 292 Receiving Yards, 8.1 YPR, 6 TDs
WR Parker Washington - 58 Receptions, 95 Targets, 847 Receiving Yards, 14.6 YPR, 5 TDs, 7 Drops
LB Foyesade Oluokun - 143 Tackles, 5 TFL, 1 Sack, 11 PD, 1 INT, 2 FF, 1 FR
S Antonio Johnson - 58 Tackles, 2 TFL, 2 Sacks, 9 PD, 5 INTs, 1 TD
X-Factor
Team Strengths
Turnovers - The Jacksonville Defense is second in the NFL with 31 total turnovers (22 interceptions and 9 fumble recoveries).
Rush Defense - Jacksonville led the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (85.6), rushing attempts per game (21.7), opponent rushing play percentage (35.62%), and opponent rushing first down percentage (26.4%). They were tied for first, giving up 5 20+ yard rushes and one of three teams not to allow a rush of 40+ yards (38 yards their longest) on the season. They finished sixth, giving up 13 touchdowns on the ground this season. Impressive given their 28% Run Stuff Win Rate, which is 31st in the NFL.
Passing Offense - In the nine games since the acquisition of Jakobi Meyers, Trevor Lawrence has thrown 20 touchdowns to 6 interceptions with a 101 passer rating while averaging 8.08 yards per attempt. In the eight games before the trade, Lawrence threw 9 touchdowns along with 6 interceptions and an 80.6 passer rating while averaging 6.38 yards per attempt. Meyers’ addition to the receiver room opened up the vertical passing game, where Lawrence finished the season 5th in the NFL with 7.0 air yards per completion. The Jaguars have former first-round pick Brian Thomas as the field stretcher to complement Meyers and Washington, along with Tight End Brenton Strange.
Special Teams - The Jaguars have one of the best kickers in the NFL in Cam Little, with multiple 60+ yard field goals this season, and is 13-16 from 50+ yards since entering the league (81%). Jacksonville led the league with an average starting field position of 32.77 yards. They use two dynamic backup running backs, LeQuint Allen and Bhayshul Tuten, on kickoff returns, and Parker Washington for punt returns, who has two touchdown returns on the season.
Team Weaknesses
Penalties - Jacksonville is 29th in the NFL, averaging 7.5 penalties per game, 30th in penalty yards at 63.5 per game. They had 8 games with 9+ penalties and 7 games with 75+ penalty yards. Of their 128 penalties on the season, 65 were on offense, 44 on defense, and 19 on special teams.
Sacks - Jacksonville’s defense generates pressure but fails to get sacks, finishing 30th with a 4.8% sack rate on the season.
Covering Tight Ends - The Jaguars finished 23rd in yards allowed to opposing Tight Ends with 1,004 on 104 receptions. They gave up 8 touchdowns and allowed a 70.3 completion percentage.
Rushing Attack - The Jaguars finished the season 27th in the NFL at 4 yards per carry, with a significant drop since Week 10. Excluding scrambles, their yards per carry dropped from 4.5 to 3.7, while averaging 107.4 yards per game. Etienne is averaging 3.5 ypc over that stretch and has eclipsed 80 yards one time in his last nine games.
How Jacksonville Wins
Establishing their running game. Jacksonville averaged 120.8 yards per game on the ground in their victories compared to 96.5 on the ground in their four losses. When RB Travis Etienne has 19+ touches or 90+ total yards, the Jaguars are undefeated. Lawrence has also played a part in the ground game's success, with the team going 10-1 in games in which he has at least 4 carries, 3-3 when under 4. Their rushing totals have dipped, but that's in part due to an increase in their passing yards since the arrival of Meyers. This has allowed Jacksonville to control the clock, where they finished 5th in time of possession on the season.
How Jacksonville Has Lost
Not getting off the field. In their 4 losses, the defense has allowed an average of 22.5 first downs per game, compared to 17.8 in their 13 victories. Jacksonville’s rush defense has done its job in wins and losses, with averages of 86.8 rushing yards allowed in wins and 81.8 in their losses. It's the passing defense that has fallen short in their 4 losses, averaging 263 yards allowed, compared to 204 yards allowed through the air in their 13 victories. Opposing Tight Ends averaged 71 receiving yards in Jacksonville losses compared to 55 ypg in Jacksonville’s victories.
