Week 11: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills Preview
When and Where: Sunday, November 16th, 1:00 PM at Highmark Stadium
How to Watch: Airing on CBS
Betting Line: Buffalo -6 O/U 46.5
Key Storylines
Class of ‘18 Reunion: Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen went 1st and 7th overall in the 2018 NFL Draft and face off for the third time in their careers, with both sharing a 1-1 record against each other.
Need a Spark: The Bills’ offense was flat in their loss to the Dolphins and is looking for a spark. Will that be the return of WR Joshua Palmer from the injury he sustained in the Falcons' loss, or will it be Gabe Davis or recent signee Mecole Hardman making their Bills’ debuts?
Youth Movement: The Bills have been forced to go young with Cole Bishop and Deone Walker being joined by Jordan Hancock, and Maxwell Hairston over recent weeks. Javon Solomon, Jackson Hawes, and T.J. Sanders are next in line with the injuries to the players ahead of them.
Injuries: Both teams have been decimated by injuries so far this season. Buffalo currently has nine players on IR, two out for the season. Tampa Bay has nine as well, with six out for the season. The Bucs will be missing Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin, and Haason Reddick. while the Bills will be missing Dalton Kincaid and possibly Taron Johnson again.
Friday Injury Reports
11-14-25 Injury Report
11-14-25 Injury Report
Matchups to Watch
Buccaneers Running Backs vs Bills Linebackers: The Buccaneers have struggled to run the ball in the absence of Irving since Week 4. Sean Tucker has looked better over the last two weeks than Rachaad White, but both have been unable to match Irving’s production. The duo has averaged 68.8 yards in the past five games at 3.62 ypc. The Bills need to prevent the Bucs from getting their ground game going early and make them one-dimensional. It will start with slowing Tucker down. Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano need to play better than they have in recent weeks.
Emeka Egbuka vs Maxwell Hairston: Egbuka has quickly made a name for himself in his rookie season as one of the NFL’s best wide receivers. He leads the Bucs in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns while averaging 75.2 yards per game. Hairston has made some splash plays since his NFL debut after the bye week, but has been beaten for some big plays (4 receptions allowed at 21.8 ypr). He will need to be more consistent with his coverage in this matchup, or it could be a long day.
Joe Brady vs Todd Bowles: This is, in essence, a matchup of the Bills' offensive line and Josh Allen vs the Buccaneers' pass rush. Todd Bowles loves to blitz and put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Haason Reddick has been ruled out, but the defense is not reliant on a single pass rusher. Lavonte David and YaYa Diaby are players to watch from the linebacker group as blitzers. Joe Brady will need to have hot routes and quick options for Allen to help slow down the pass rush. Teams are blitzing Allen at the highest rate since the 2021 season, and he has not handled it as well as in previous years. Until he can make them pay for it, they will continue dialing up the pressure.
X Factors
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Vita Vea and Tez Johnson. Vea is a mammoth in the middle and a force in the pass rush at his size. Vea has been quiet since his 2 sack performance in Week 4, but can be a difference maker even if he isn't filling the stat sheet. Johnson is a shifty slot receiver who, in the absence of Evans and Godwin, has become Mayfield’s WR2. Buffalo cannot lose him in coverage while focusing on Egbuka. Over the last four games, Johnson has 14 receptions, 188 yards, and four touchdowns. Whether it's Johnson or Cam Lewis, the Bills’ CBs will need to be ready for a high number of targets.
Buffalo Bills: Larry Ogunjobi and Dawson Knox. Ogunjobi has a chance to step up for the Bills at a position that’s been decimated by injuries. He has shown improvement each week since returning from suspension, and this week could be the matchup that he breaks out. Tampa Bay will start 2nd- and 3rd-stringers at their Guard positions, which will be an area for the Bills' pass rush to attack. Knox finds himself as TE1 again with the Kincaid injury. He has been used primarily as a blocker the past two seasons, but should benefit from a lack of film on being used in the passing game. Josh Allen needs to utilize the tight ends and running backs in the passing game, and I expect Knox to be a safety valve against the blitz and have some routes up the seam that give him some catch and run opportunities.
Keys to Victory
Establish the passing game off of the running game. The Bills have gotten predictable on offense and need to use that to their advantage by passing out of formations that they line up in for running plays. Under center, play-action or no play-action, throw the ball.
Utilize the running backs in the passing game. James Cook, Ray Davis, and Ty Johnson must have 10+ targets.
Take the easy underneath throws. Jamel Dean, Zyon McCollum, and Antoine Winfield Jr. are all playing at a high level in the Bucs’ secondary and should not be tested when there will be better targets in the middle of the field.
Force the Buccaneers into a one-dimensional offense. On the season, Tampa is a 60/40 pass-to-run split, so they naturally pass more, but they are 0-3 in games where Mayfield has 40+ pass attempts.
Generate pressure in the interior. Tampa has an elite tackle in Tristan Wirfs and an exceptional RT in Luke Goedeke. Buffalo will need to attack the middle of the Buccaneers’ offensive line to create pressure on Mayfield.
Prediction
Bills 27 Buccaneers 23
Go Bills!
