When and Where: Sunday, November 20th, 8:15 PM at NRG Stadium
How to Watch: Airing on Prime Video
Betting Line: Buffalo -5.5 O/U 44.5

Key Storylines

Breaking Records: Josh Allen (290) passed Peyton Manning (288) for most total touchdowns by a player 30-or-younger with a six touchdown performance vs the Buccaneers on his way to his 17th AFC Offensive Player of the Week award. He passed Tom Brady (10) for the most career games (including playoffs) with 3+ passing and 1+ rushing touchdowns. Allen needs one more rushing touchdown to break a tie with Cam Newton (75) and move into first place all-time for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback in the regular season.

Formiddable Foe: Josh Allen has a 1-3 record, .250 win %, against the Houston Texans (including playoffs) since entering the league. The only team he has a lower winning % against is the Philadelphia Eagles, at 0.000% with two losses. Buffalo hasn’t won in Houston since 2006.

Primetime: This is the second TNF game for the Bills, and the fifth and final scheduled primetime game of the season. Buffalo has 3 scheduled 4:25 games, 2 1 PM games, and its Week 18 matchup with the Jets is TBD.

Injuries: Curtis Samuel, Dalton Kincaid, and Mecole Hardman have been ruled out for the Bills. C.J. Stroud and Jalen Pitre are both still in concussion protocol and will miss their second straight game.

Inactive: 2nd year wide receiver Keon Coleman was a healthy inactive against the Buccaneers and is rumored to be one again Thursday night. Will the passing attack stay hot for a second consecutive game in his absence?

Wednesday Injury Reports

Buffalo Bills Wednesday 11-19-25 Injury Report

Houston Texans Wednesday, 11-19-25 Injury Report

Matchups to Watch

Bills Secondary vs Texans WRs: The Houston passing attack has taken off with Mills under center. Buffalo’s DBs will need to be up for the task. Nico Collins is their field-stretching WR1, but rookie Jayden Higgins has quickly developed into a strong WR2 alongside Christian Kirk and Xavier Hutchinson. Buffalo will need to use coverage confusion and a strong pass rush to help the DBs slow down the passing game.

Bills Pass Rush vs Texans OL: The Bills' pass rush has fallen off since the injury to Michael Hoecht, with only one sack since he went out in the Kansas City game. Houston has a rebuilt offensive line that has regressed with Davis Mills under center. A.J. Epenesa, Joey Bosa, and Greg Rousseau need to take advantage of the inexperienced Tackles and make it a long night for the backup quarterback.

Bills Receivers vs Texans Secondary: Houston’s the number one-ranked defense in the NFL, and their secondary plays a large part in that. They have one of the best corners in the NFL in Derek Stingley Jr., who has another young up-and-coming CB in Kamari Lassiter across from him. That duo, paired with Calen Bullock roaming at safety, is a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks. Allen should take advantage of Pitre’s absence and focus his passing towards the middle of the field and underneath. The perimeter receivers should not expect a lot of targets Thursday night if the Bills’ passing game is successful.

X Factors

Houston Texans: Nico Collins and Danielle Hunter/Will Anderson Jr. Collins has 16 catches for 228 yards and a touchdown in Mills’ two starts. He’s been targeted 25 times. It’s safe to say he is the number one target in the passing game and needs to be neutralized by the Bills’ secondary. If he catches a few balls early, it opens up the Texans’ passing attack by allowing other players to get looks as the coverage shifts to Collins. Stop Collins and make someone else beat you in the passing game. With 17 sacks between them, Anderson (8) and Hunter (9) form the best pass rush duo in the NFL. The next closest player on their roster has 1.5 sacks. Both players have the ability to take over a game on their own, individually or together, so it will be a tough matchup for the Bills' line, particularly for Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown. Hunter has 5 sacks in the last two games, and Anderson has a sack in 5 consecutive games and has only had two games without a sack on the season.

Buffalo Bills: Khalil Shakir and Cole Bishop. If the Bills are going to attack the Texans' secondary, it will need to be in the middle of the field with Jalen Pitre out, and that should mean a big game for Shakir. I’m also factoring in the new father bump after he and his wife welcomed their first child earlier this week, following a 1-catch game vs. the Bucs. Shakir should be at 6+ in this matchup. Bishop has been playing lights out the past few weeks, and I feel that has to be attributed to the confidence and comfort that’s been gained with the addition of Jordan Poyer to the starting lineup. I’m sure he will want to redeem himself from last year’s poor performance against Houston.

Keys to Victory

The Bills cannot turn the ball over. They’re facing a backup quarterback and an offense that’s struggled to run the ball. They can’t give them extra possessions and shorten the game for themselves. The Houston defense has forced 16 turnovers on the season, so ball security will be crucial.
Get James Cook and the running game going. Teams are averaging 109 yards on the ground in Texans losses and 65.2 in Texans victories. The Bills cannot expect a repeat of the air assault that they put on the Buccaneers.
Take away Mills’ first read. He’s played well since stepping in for Stroud, but he’s relying on his first option 70% of the time on drop-backs. Disrupt the timing of routes and make him go through his progressions.
Pass rush. Buffalo has to find ways to get pressure on the quarterback. Houston’s offensive line is not good, and its backup is not very mobile. Mills has taken 8 sacks in the 2.5 games he’s played compared to the 17 sacks Stroud has taken in the 7.5 games he played.
Houston has not run the ball well so far this season. The Bills’ defense cannot allow the Bills to establish a ground game. Nick Chubb and Woody Marks cannot be the players that beat you.

Prediction

Bills 24 Texans 13

Go Bills!

Week 12: Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans Preview