Week 6: Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons Preview

When and Where: Monday, October 13th, 7:15 PM at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
How to Watch: Airing on ESPN
Betting Line: Buffalo -3.5 O/U 49.5

Key Storylines

Unbeaten No More: How do the Bills respond after their first loss of the season to the Patriots, where they turned the ball over three times? Buffalo is 22-6 following a loss since 2019, 10-2 on the road.

What’s Going to Give? The Bills enter the matchup third in the NFL at 395.8 yards per game. Atlanta’s defense leads the NFL, allowing only 244 yards per game.

Scrimmage Yard Leader: Bijan Robinson leads the NFL, averaging 146 scrimmage yards per game. How will the Bills’ defense slow down the Falcons’ best weapon?

Time for a Throwback: The Falcons will wear their alternate red helmet throwback uniforms, while the Bills bring back their Standing Buffalo throwbacks for the first of two appearances this season.

Road Tripping: This is the first away game for the Bills since Week 2 at New York. The Bills started the season with four out of their first five games at home. They will only play at home two more times before December.

Saturday Injury Reports

Buffalo Bills Final Injury Report 10-11-25

Atlanta Falcons Final Injury Report 10-11-25

Matchups to Watch

Bills Front 7 vs Bijan Robinson: Robinson is the Falcons’ best player and a weapon in the passing and running game. The Bills will need to account for him and chip him coming out of the backfield to disrupt the timing on routes. The front seven will need to clog up the line of scrimmage and take good angles on running plays, or they’re going to be burned by his speed. Robinson is averaging 117.5 yards from scrimmage in the Falcons’ losses and 174.5 in their two wins. The Bills will need to contain Robinson and force the offense to move through other players.

Josh Allen vs Falcons Secondary: Allen has now thrown an interception in back-to-back games, heading into a matchup with the number one pass defense in the NFL at 135 yards per game while allowing a 58% completion percentage, the lowest in the league. Can Allen stay patient and take what the defense gives him like he was doing early in the season, or will he continue forcing some balls like he has the past few weeks?

Falcons Pass Rush vs Bills OL: The Falcons have 10 sacks through four games, but six of them came in their week two victory over Minnesota. This is a matchup in which the Bills' offensive line has the advantage. Establishing the run and utilizing the short passing game will help the offense neutralize Atlanta's speed on the edges.

Bills Tight Ends vs Falcons LBs: Buffalo leads the NFL with 395 receiving yards from their tight ends, with Dalton Kincaid, the primary contributor. The Falcons are number one at defending tight ends. The Bills group will be the best tight ends that Kaden Elliss and Divine Deablo have faced so far this season. This will be a fun matchup to keep an eye on.

X Factors

Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix and Jessie Bates. If the Bills can’t get pressure on Penix and make him move around in the pocket, it will be a long day for their secondary. The key to disrupting the Atlanta passing game is to make Penix move around instead of allowing him to drop back, hit his back foot, and throw. It’s not complicated. He has a good deep ball, but his accuracy drops off on short passes when he feels pressured. Generate pressure, move the pocket, disrupt the passing game. Bates has an innate ability to cause turnovers. He has superior coverage skills and has developed a knack for punching the ball out, leading the NFL with seven forced fumbles since 2023.

Buffalo Bills: James Cook and Shaq Thompson. Joe Brady and the offense need to get Cook involved early by establishing the run and utilizing him in the passing game. Aside from Allen, he is the most dangerous player on offense when the ball is in his hands. Forcing the Atlanta linebackers to cover him is an advantage for the Bills that they need to exploit. I am expecting Thompson to play a lot of snaps with the absence of Matt Milano, and Dorian Williams coming off a knee injury. His speed and instincts will be needed to slow down Bijan Robinson and the Falcons’ running game.

Keys to Victory

Buffalo establishes the running game early and jumps out to an early lead that forces Atlanta to abandon their running game. The Bills’ defense is able to create pressure and make Penix uncomfortable in the pocket, forcing some inaccurate throws. Buffalo returns to form and wins the turnover battle.

Prediction

Bills 27 Falcons 16

Go Bills!