Week 5: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Preview
When and Where: Sunday, October 5th, 8:20 PM at Highmark Stadium
How to Watch: Airing on NBC
Betting Line: Buffalo -7.5 O/U 49.5
Key Storylines
Divisional Threat: At 2-2, the Patriots under new head coach Mike Vrabel are the Bills' most viable threat within the division. A Patriots’ victory Sunday night would put the AFC on notice.
Extending Streaks: The Bills are in the midst of a 14-game home winning streak and four straight games with 30+ points to start the season. James Cook set a Bills record with his eighth straight game with a rushing touchdown. Can Buffalo keep all three intact?
Diggs Returns to Orchard Park: Stefon Diggs makes his first appearance in Buffalo since being traded before the 2024 season to the Texans.
Strength vs Strength: The Bills are the number one rushing attack in the NFL at 163.5 yards per game. The Patriots are the 2nd best rush defense allowing 77.5 yards per game. Which side will come out on top Sunday night?
White Out: The Bills are dawning their all white, “Cold Front,” Nike Rivalries uniforms for the first time this season. Fans are being encouraged to wear white merchandise to match the team and create a “white out” stadium atmosphere.
Friday Injury Reports
New England Patriots 10-3 Injury Report
Buffalo Bills 10-3 Injury Report
Matchups to Watch
Taron Johnson vs Stefon Diggs: Diggs is coming off his best game in a Patriots uniform, six receptions for 101 yards. Johnson will need to be prepared for the crafty route runner who has become the primary slot receiver in Josh McDaniels’ offense.
Special Teams: The Bills will be starting their third punter since the start of the season against the NFL’s leading punt returner, Marcus Jones. Buffalo has not fared well on kickoff coverage and ranks at the bottom of the league in opponents' return yards, and will face the only player to return a kickoff for a touchdown this season, Antonio Gibson. Special Teams play could decide the outcome of this game.
Battle in the Trenches: The Bills’ offensive line is one of the best in the NFL, but if they’re missing Spencer Brown for a second consecutive week, it opens the door for a Patriots pass rush led by Harold Landry and Milton Williams (Questionable). New England boasts the number two-ranked run defense, but is coming off a week four victory where they allowed 129 yards at 4.6 ypc. The Patriots have allowed 13 sacks on the season, with 9 of those coming in their two losses. If the Bills' pass rush is going to get going, this may be their opportunity to build on their three-sack performance against the Saints. Ed Oliver appears to be healthy enough to return after his three-week absence to boost a pass rush being dragged along by Joey Bosa’s superior play to start the season. The Bills’ run defense is another story.
Drake Maye vs Bills Secondary: Maye is off to a strong start in his second season under center, completing 74% of his passes to lead the NFL with seven touchdowns and two interceptions. The turnovers that plagued Maye in his rookie season have been eliminated from his game to start the season. How will the Bills' secondary disguise their coverages to confuse Maye and help the pass rush get to the third-most-sacked quarterback in the league?
Bills Passing Attack vs Patriots Linebackers: Josh Allen has been taking what opposing defenses have been giving him to start the season. If that stays true this weekend, I expect Allen to target his running backs and tight ends when they’re matched up against the Patriots’ linebackers. James Cook, Ty Johnson, and Dawson Knox could be in line for the most targets they’ve seen so far this season.
X Factors
New England Patriots: TreVeyon Henderson and Milton Williams. The Patriots rank 26th in rushing offense, averaging 101 yards per game, but will face the 29th-ranked run defense in Buffalo. Henderson is the style of running back that can really exploit the Bills’ biggest weakness. Henderson is coming off the best game of his young career and can be the difference that New England needs this weekend. Williams has an ankle injury that kept him limited in practice this week and is carrying a questionable designation on the most recent injury report. If he doesn’t play, that’s a major loss for the Patriots’ defense. If he’s healthy enough to play, Buffalo will need to make sure it limits his effectiveness with quick passes and gets the running game going early.
Buffalo Bills: Terrel Bernard and Keon Coleman. Coleman showed great route running in the Bills’ week 4 victory over the Saints. I want to see him build on that this week versus a New England secondary giving up 8.2 yards per attempt, the fourth-highest in the NFL. Coleman’s versatility and size should help him win his matchups and be a factor in the passing game. Bernard will be tasked with covering Drake Maye’s favorite target, Hunter Henry. Limiting Henry’s production and keeping the middle of the field clogged is the key to slowing down the Patriots’ passing attack.
Keys to Victory
The Bills need to play clean football and continue their streak of protecting the ball. Mike Vrabel-led teams have a knack for grinding out games. The offense can’t give them more opportunities, and Special Teams needs to have their best performance of the season. Win the turnover battle, establish the run game, and get pressure on the Patriots’ second-year signal caller.
Prediction
Bills 31 Patriots 23
Go Bills!
